Calibration record
Pre-registered, dated, scored after the fact; misses retained. Selected record through August 12, 2026.
This is a research record, not a performance record. It scores stated forecasts, not capital. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. Past performance — of markets, of analogies, and of the author's own predictions journal — does not guarantee future results.
Provenance. The record is drawn from the paper'sAppendix D, already part of the published corpus, and from the shop's predictions journal under a stated redaction rule: criteria, dates and verdicts only — never positions, never sizing. No number, date, verdict or lesson has been altered. Entries are published when they are logged, not when they resolve: a live leg appears here before its outcome is known, because that is what pre-registration means.
The record
| Call | Verdict | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Rotation-vs-liquidation week call | Hit | |
| Visa overnight-drop magnitude | Miss | A 2σ ask. Lesson codified into a sizing rule. |
| Ford earnings direction | Miss | Anchoring. Lesson codified into a staleness check. |
| AAPL results | Hit | |
| AAPL choreography | Miss ×3 | |
| AMZN results / capex-framing / bounce | Hit ×3 | |
| AMZN after-hours shape | Miss | |
| AMZN $250 conditional | Hit | Resolved on session one. |
| AMD fundamentals | Hit ×2 | With two informative misses — margin up, capex tripled. |
| AMD reaction leg | Miss | Missed by 0.33%. |
| Optics year-end drop thesis — first leg | Miss, decisively | The drop thesis met a +13.6% post-print rip — the expectations-reset-at-lows relief mechanism the pre-flight had flagged as the tension against the entry. Remaining legs open. |
The aggregate, and what it does not prove
Results-legs ≈ 5-for-5. Choreography-legs ≈ 2-for-9.
The sample is small (~14 scored legs) — the split is an observed pattern being tested forward, not a demonstrated law, and the routing rule built on it (fundamentals to the human, choreography to the machine) will be re-derived as the sample grows.
Open, long-dated
- The optics persistence legs.
- Entry #9 — the timeline claim of Part IV. First reviewFebruary 2027; final judgment December 2028.
The author's mental model gets scored like everything else. That is the point.
Live entries
Updated at launch, August 17, 2026. A live-scoring entry is published before its resolution on purpose: that is what pre-registration means.
Entry #10 — AMAT FY-Q3 (logged pre-print 8/13, CLOSED 8/14): 2 HIT / 2 MISS.Results legs both HIT at high stated handicaps (beat both lines, 85%; guide above consensus, 70% — the guide beat consensus by 7.4% at midpoint). Choreography legs both MISS (after-hours direction; next-day counter-move — the tape sold the beat two days running instead). Identical split to entry #8: the house can handicap what companies report; the dance afterward remains a coin flip we’ve stopped paying for.
Entry #8 — optics year-end prints (logged pre-print 8/11): 1 HIT / 2 MISS, one leg live. LITE reaction: MISS, decisively (+13.6% relief pop — the expectations-reset mechanism the pre-flight had flagged as the tension against the entry). COHR reaction: HIT, decisively (−8.0% day-two sell-the-news). LITE persistence: MISS (scored 8/17 on condition-violation — the +5% clause was breached 8/12, making the leg unsatisfiable).COHR persistence: scores at tomorrow’s close (Aug 19; reference $355.64) — watch it resolve in public.
Standing note: this is a research record, not a performance record. It scores stated forecasts, not capital. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. Past performance — of markets, of analogies, and of the author's own predictions journal — does not guarantee future results.