The Record
Most market writing is unfalsifiable by construction: the claims are vague enough to survive any outcome, and the revisions are silent. This page is the opposite arrangement. Every load-bearing claim in the thesis carries dated conditions that would kill it. Every revision — including the self-corrections — is logged verbatim. Every resolved forecast is scored, and the misses are published at the same prominence as the hits.
This is a research record, not a performance record. It scores stated forecasts, not capital. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. Past performance — of markets, of analogies, and of the author's own predictions journal — does not guarantee future results.
None of that makes the thesis right. It makes it checkable, which is the only property a reader outside the author's head can actually verify.
Changelog
The verbatim revision history
Self-corrections appear as ordinary events, because they are.
Calibration
Pre-registered forecasts, scored after the fact
Resolved legs only.
Standing note: this is a research record, not a performance record. It scores stated forecasts, not capital. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation. Past performance — of markets, of analogies, and of the author's own predictions journal — does not guarantee future results.